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8 May 2015
CFTC commitments of traders report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for week ending Tuesday, April 28th.
Key Quotes:
"CFTC data for the week through May 5th showed a significant shift in positioning in the JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP and MXN. Net shorts in JPY increased by 26k to –31k contracts. The move comes ahead of extended holidays in Japan. Leveraged funds accounted for the majority of the move."
"We expect JPY weakness (and related positioning) to become more deeply entrenched as we transition into the second half of the year when Fed hike expectations firm; even if the Fed delays hikes until early 2016 we suspect that the BoJ will have to provide additional stimulus. In either scenario, JPY weakness will prevail."
"Positioning in AUD swiftly shifted to a net long of 0.6k contracts, a weekly swing of 28k contracts. This is probably due to the RBA meeting; despite delivering 25bps of cuts the removal of its easing bias provided a lift to the AUD."
"CAD net shorts were reduced by 10.8k contracts to –10.8k (mostly due to leveraged funds). We are not surprised by this change given that we were looking for a USD/CAD to drop to 1.1950, which it did. We think we are nearing the point where USD/CAD longs will be the big trade for the rest of the year."
"Net shorts in GBP were scaled back to 9.4k to –24.8k contracts ahead of UK election week. Expect net shorts to be sharply reduced in next week’s report given the surprising Conservative majority win. As we noted here, we like strategic longs in GBP/CAD and shorts in EUR/GBP."
"EUR net shorts were also pared back by 7.6k contracts to –190k. We do not think this is sustainable however and the rally in EUR/USD looks like it has stalled. Sentiment measures remain bearish and though we expected the countertrend bounce, we think it is an opportune time to get short EUR/USD"
"MXN net shorts increased by 26.7k to –50.1k contracts. CHF net longs increased by 4.0k to 5.3k contracts. The move would consistent with EMFX underperformance. NZD net longs were scaled back by 1.1k to 9.1k contracts. Overall, we estimate that aggregate USD position stands at USD33.2bn (from USD34.7bn last week)."
Key Quotes:
"CFTC data for the week through May 5th showed a significant shift in positioning in the JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP and MXN. Net shorts in JPY increased by 26k to –31k contracts. The move comes ahead of extended holidays in Japan. Leveraged funds accounted for the majority of the move."
"We expect JPY weakness (and related positioning) to become more deeply entrenched as we transition into the second half of the year when Fed hike expectations firm; even if the Fed delays hikes until early 2016 we suspect that the BoJ will have to provide additional stimulus. In either scenario, JPY weakness will prevail."
"Positioning in AUD swiftly shifted to a net long of 0.6k contracts, a weekly swing of 28k contracts. This is probably due to the RBA meeting; despite delivering 25bps of cuts the removal of its easing bias provided a lift to the AUD."
"CAD net shorts were reduced by 10.8k contracts to –10.8k (mostly due to leveraged funds). We are not surprised by this change given that we were looking for a USD/CAD to drop to 1.1950, which it did. We think we are nearing the point where USD/CAD longs will be the big trade for the rest of the year."
"Net shorts in GBP were scaled back to 9.4k to –24.8k contracts ahead of UK election week. Expect net shorts to be sharply reduced in next week’s report given the surprising Conservative majority win. As we noted here, we like strategic longs in GBP/CAD and shorts in EUR/GBP."
"EUR net shorts were also pared back by 7.6k contracts to –190k. We do not think this is sustainable however and the rally in EUR/USD looks like it has stalled. Sentiment measures remain bearish and though we expected the countertrend bounce, we think it is an opportune time to get short EUR/USD"
"MXN net shorts increased by 26.7k to –50.1k contracts. CHF net longs increased by 4.0k to 5.3k contracts. The move would consistent with EMFX underperformance. NZD net longs were scaled back by 1.1k to 9.1k contracts. Overall, we estimate that aggregate USD position stands at USD33.2bn (from USD34.7bn last week)."