After RBA left rates on hold, Market sees better than 50% chance of hike till August - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the main overnight event was the RBA policy decision, though it was preceded by a small dip in the AIG services PMI, a widening in the May trade deficit to AUD 2.2bn, and a modest 0.2% gain in May retail sales.

Key Quotes

“The RBA left rates on hold and published a very neutral policy statement, but the market continues to see a better than 50% chance of a rate hike in the next three months. That’s a bit lower than the odds of a rate cut in the UK or New Zealand but a lot higher than in Canada (or the US). We remain relatively bullish of CAD against AUD, even more so against NZD.”