AUD/USD: minor recovery capped, where next?

• AUD/USD capped through 0.7850.
• AUD/USD headed back to below 0.7743?

AUD/USD has reached a limit in its minor recovery of the 0.81 slide that happened as we entered the last trading days of Jan. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7855, up 0.08% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7866 and low at 0.7847.

The Aussie was able to do well despite that volatility remains high. The CRB Index was also looking vulnerable to the downside overnight, resting on a support zone. 

Commodities in recovery?

But commodities held up and gold was turning a corner in NY as the dollar came off. AUD/USD opened around 0.7830 and closed at 0.7860 in NY, mostly on dollar weakness in the absence of any fundamentals - (The DXY  stalled against a neckline resistance of 90.65-70). 

AUD/USD levels

Meanwhile, analysts at Commerzbank noted that last week AUD/USD sold off to its initial target zone of 0.7818/0.7757 (the 50% retracement, the mid-January low and the 200-day ma. "We would allow for some profit taking in this vicinity. Intraday rallies are indicated as likely to terminate circa 0.7895. Below 0.7743 (61.8% retracement) will target 0.7637/78.6% retracement and the 0.7568 2016- 2018 uptrend. We continue to view the recent high at 0.8135 as an interim top."