Japan: GDP and media reports about Kuroda to take centre stage – BBH

Japan offers its first estimate of Q4 17 GDP and while the expansion continued, it is expected to have slowed from 0.6% in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4, according to analysts at BBH.  

Key Quotes

"After annualized growth of 2.9% and 2.5% respectively in Q2 and Q3, the pace is forecast to slow to 1.0%, the slowest since Q3 16.  While consumption appears to have improved in the quarter, residential and public investment may have softened.  Although the core CPI has risen this year, the GDP deflator is expected to be flat.”

“New reports before the weekend claimed that BOJ Governor Kuroda will be reappointed for a second term.  It was understood as a close call, and the tradition is for only one term.  However, it is understandable that Prime Minister Abe desires continuity.  Indeed, there is a new Chair of the Fed, and PBOC Zhou is thought to be stepping down in the coming months, while Draghi and Carney are due to step down next year.”

“The terms of the two deputy governors of the BOJ end in the middle of next month, a few weeks before Kuroda's term.  The appointment of the deputies will likely underscore the commitment to the current policy thrust.  Amamiya, understood as a key architect to the current monetary policy, is rumored to likely be promoted from an Executive Director of the BOJ to Deputy Governor.  Honda, the advisor to Abe who is now the ambassador to Switzerland, is thought to be a promising candidate for the other Deputy Governor position.”