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18 Mar 2014
Flash: Extension to 1.4259/83 in EUR/USD not off the table - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JPMorgan, an extension to 1.4259/83 in EUR/USD is not off the table yet.
Key Quotes
"The latest break above key-resistance at 1.3795/1.3833-48 (minor 76.4 %/left shoulder/monthly trend) in EUR/USD has certainly caught the generally negative investor community on the wrong foot which could exactly be the driver for yet another extension to 1.4249/83 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot) as long as key-support is not broken."
"Above 1.3782/60, the risk of extending towards 1.4259/83 persists. That said a break below support between 1.3812 and 1.3782/60 (minor 38.2 %/daily trend) would provide strong evidence that the countertrend rally top is in place but for confirmation purposes it would take two consecutive lower daily closes (10pm CET) of the red lagging line below the cloud (at 1.3594 today) and a break below 1.3558 (lower trend line)."
"Such breaks would constitute a new bear trend with weekly trend line supports at 1.3254 and at 1.2851 seen as intermediate targets only. A break and weekly close above 1.3993 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging line) would on the other hand risk an extension up to the next major T- junction at 1.4259/83 which looks massive though and would have to be cleared to open the way towards 1.4561 (monthly triangle) and possibly even to 1.5057/1.5147 (76.4 % on highest scale/2009 high)."
Key Quotes
"The latest break above key-resistance at 1.3795/1.3833-48 (minor 76.4 %/left shoulder/monthly trend) in EUR/USD has certainly caught the generally negative investor community on the wrong foot which could exactly be the driver for yet another extension to 1.4249/83 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot) as long as key-support is not broken."
"Above 1.3782/60, the risk of extending towards 1.4259/83 persists. That said a break below support between 1.3812 and 1.3782/60 (minor 38.2 %/daily trend) would provide strong evidence that the countertrend rally top is in place but for confirmation purposes it would take two consecutive lower daily closes (10pm CET) of the red lagging line below the cloud (at 1.3594 today) and a break below 1.3558 (lower trend line)."
"Such breaks would constitute a new bear trend with weekly trend line supports at 1.3254 and at 1.2851 seen as intermediate targets only. A break and weekly close above 1.3993 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging line) would on the other hand risk an extension up to the next major T- junction at 1.4259/83 which looks massive though and would have to be cleared to open the way towards 1.4561 (monthly triangle) and possibly even to 1.5057/1.5147 (76.4 % on highest scale/2009 high)."