When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to rebound 0.2% m/m in October, following a drop of 0.8% seen in September. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3% over the year, unchanged from the booked in September.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen bouncing 0.2% m/m while rising 3.3% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “from a technical perspective, the pair on Wednesday struggled to sustain a move back above 100-day SMA and met with some fresh supply near the 1.3065-70 area. The mentioned region might continue to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the pair is more likely to surpass the 1.3100 handle and test the 1.3125-30 strong horizontal resistance. On the flip side, any meaningful retracement is likely to find immediate support near the 1.2965-60 region, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards challenging the 1.2900 round figure mark.” 

Key Notes

Market themes of the Day: Retail sales in the UK and the US headline amid Fed speakers

UK Oct retail sales: Expect a muted 0.3% m/m rise - HSBC

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Brexit-laden Cable strangling 1.3000

About the UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.