UOB Group: Immediate upside risks for EUR/USD

United Overseas Bank’s analysis team suggest that the immediate risk is on the upside but it is too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR.

Key Quotes

“We highlighted strong resistance levels at 1.1410 & 1.1440 & expected EUR to ‘struggle’ to break above 1.1440. After trading in a muted manner for several days, EUR finally stirred to life as it rose to a 3-week high of 1.1402 during late-NY hours.”

“Upward momentum has perked up and the risk is still clearly on the upside. That said, 1.1440 continues to loom as a solid resistance & in order for EUR to break this level, it could not afford to ‘dither’.”

“In other words, the price action within these few days is crucial in determining whether EUR can move above 1.1440. Odds for a move above 1.1440 appear to be slightly more than even.”

“Looking ahead, a ‘clean’ break of this level would suggest that EUR is ready to tackle last month’s top at 1.1515. EUR is expected to stay underpinned until there is a break of ‘key sup’ at 1.1310.”