Australia: Q4 GDP likely to confirm a softening trend - NAB

Analysis team at NAB is expecting the Australian Q4 GDP to confirm a softening trend, recording another soft print of 0.4% in the quarter to be 2.6% higher over the year.

Key Quotes

“With growth projected to slow, amidst remaining spare capacity in the economy, we see rates on hold for an extended period. While this release is unlikely to trigger an immediate shift on rates, it will provide another marker on the growth front which may lead to an eventual reassessment of the future growth path by the RBA, particularly if weaker growth flows through to labour market conditions.”

“Looking forward, we see the economy supported by public sector spending, a rise in LNG exports and healthy growth in business investment. Offsetting these supports, consumption is likely to only grow modestly and dwelling investment is expected to fall.”