US NFP: Expect 165k in March vs. a subpar 20k increase in February - HSBC

Analysts at HSBC offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s US labor market report that will drop in at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Expect … 165,000 … from a subpar 20,000 increase in February

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m-o-m in March. Depending on rounding, this may be enough to keep the y-o-y rate of increase unchanged at 3.4%.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in February from 4.0% in January, as furloughed federal employees who were previously on temporary layoff returned to work. We expect the unemployment rate was steady at 3.8% in March.”