US: Durable Goods and PCE deflator in focus – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts point out that in the US, the preliminary estimate of August durable goods orders is due, as are data on personal income and spending.

Key Quotes

“The former will shed further light on the US economy in the context of a trade conflict that continues to drag on. Consensus expects durables (excluding transportation) to post a small gain after a -0.4% decline in July. Despite expectations of a 0.4% m/m gain in personal income, personal spending is expected to slow somewhat from the 0.6% m/m seen in July.”

“More importantly, the PCE deflator is expected to hold steady at 1.4%. However, the core measure may show some increase in inflation, with the core PCE expected at 1.8%. Nonetheless, that is still some way from the Fed’s target and these data should thus not change the US economic assessment, and we continue to look for another insurance cut in December.”