AUD/USD may plummet towards 0.7245 as RBA can turn dovish amid lockdowns – TDS

The aussie is under notable pressure today as the latest batch of lockdowns across Australia have some questioning the RBA’s moves next week. Economists at TD Securities think near-term risks probably still remain skewed to the downside for AUD/USD.

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“The AUD is among the day's worst performers as the latest lockdowns across Australia have now stretched to nearly half the population.” 

“The country's relative sluggishness on the vaccine front has fueled some speculation the RBA could deliver a dovish surprise at next week's policy decision. Policymakers are due to decide on whether to extend its YCC target to the November 2024 bond and the shape of their QE program going forward.”

“We continue to expect the RBA will hold to the current April 2024 maturity target and to a QE3 program of ‘up to A$100bn’. We think this will come in two clips of A$50bn with purchases spread out over five months for each.”

“We note that AUDUSD's post-FOMC bounce from 0.7475 ran out of steam at 0.7617 last week. With the aussie now back below the 200-DMA (0.7565), we think near-term risks probably still remain skewed to the downside.”

“We think the next natural support zone should arise around 0.7415, but would expect a more significant floor to be found around 0.7245.”